If you’re tracking Arlington VA real estate 2026 (or trying to time buying a home in the DMV), Q1 is already shaping up to be a “more balanced, more strategic” market—especially compared to the ultra-tight years. Buyers are seeing more options, sellers are seeing more comparison shopping, and Days on Market (DOM) is becoming the stat that quietly explains why one home sells in 4 days while another sits for 40.

A quick transparency note: as of January 15, 2026, the MLS-driven associations haven’t published full Q1 closings yet. So this report uses the most recent complete month available (December 2025) as the baseline, plus early-2026 trend signals from regional economists and market trackers. That baseline matters because Q1 (Jan–Mar) typically “wakes up” in late January and accelerates into March.

Want to watch the market in real time by neighborhood? Start here: Search All Homes → https://kerishull.com/home-search/

How is the DMV market changing in 2026?

The short version: more supply, more selectivity, and more negotiation—without a price collapse.

Across the DMV, data points are lining up in a way that usually signals a transitioning market:

• Inventory is higher than last winter, giving buyers more choices.

• DOM is longer, which increases buyer leverage (especially after the first weekend).

• Prices are holding steady overall, but “perfect” homes (location + condition + pricing) still get the strongest offers.

Bright MLS (which tracks much of the Mid-Atlantic, including our region) described 2026 as a year that “moves more towards balance,” with more room for negotiation as supply increases and price growth softens—more of a transition than a dramatic turnaround. (GlobeNewswire)

What happened to prices in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and D.C. entering Q1 2026?

Because Q1 2026 closings aren’t fully published yet, the best “launch point” is December 2025, which captures where the market entered this year.

Northern Virginia (NVAR region: Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and nearby)

NVAR reported:

• Median sold price: $715,000 in December 2025 (up 2.1% year-over-year) (NVAR)

• Closed sales: 1,197 (up 5.2% year-over-year) (NVAR)

This is classic “stable price floor” behavior: values held, and transactions improved modestly as buyers returned for the right homes.

Washington, D.C. (DC Association of Realtors Market Insights)

D.C.’s December 2025 Market Insights report showed:

• Median sold price: $720,000 (up 14.7% year-over-year) (new.dcrealtors.org)

• Closed sales: 460 (up 9.3% from November, but down vs. December 2024) (new.dcrealtors.org)

Takeaway: Entering Q1 2026, both Northern Virginia and D.C. showed resilient pricing—while other metrics (like DOM and inventory) signaled a more negotiable environment.

Why DOM is the stat everyone should be watching in Q1 2026

DOM (Days on Market) tells you something price alone can’t: how buyers are behaving in real time.

Northern Virginia DOM

• NVAR reported 35 average days on market in December 2025—up from 27 the prior year. (NVAR)

Washington, D.C. DOM

• D.C.’s Market Insights report showed 49 average DOM in December 2025. (new.dcrealtors.org)

That gap matters for strategy:

• In many Arlington and Alexandria neighborhoods, well-priced homes can still move quickly—but buyers are less likely to waive everything when they have options.

• In several D.C. neighborhoods (especially condo-heavy areas), longer DOM can mean more room to negotiate—price, credits, or terms.

If you’re trying to “read the room” as a buyer or seller, DOM is often the first clue.

Is inventory rising across the DMV in 2026?

Yes—especially compared to last winter, which is exactly what changes buyer behavior.

Northern Virginia (NVAR)

NVAR reported:

• Active listings: 1,438 in December 2025 (up 31.7% year-over-year) (NVAR)

• Months of supply: 1.04 (up from 0.8 in December 2024) (NVAR)

Washington, D.C.

D.C.’s December 2025 report showed:

• Active listings: 2,019 (with December noted as the high point in the 2025 range shown) (new.dcrealtors.org)

More supply doesn’t automatically mean lower prices. In Q1 markets like ours, it usually means:

• Buyers can compare more homes before committing

• Sellers need sharper pricing and stronger presentation

• “Stale listings” become opportunities

What should first-time buyers know in Arlington VA?

If you’re using a first-time homebuyer guide DC checklist and Arlington is on your shortlist, here’s what matters most right now:

1) Micro-markets win (not broad averages)

“Arlington” isn’t one market. DOM, condo demand, and buyer competition can vary dramatically between Ballston, Clarendon, Rosslyn, Crystal City, Shirlington, and North Arlington single-family streets.

2) Use DOM as your negotiation map

A practical approach:

• 0–10 DOM: assume strong competition; move fast with clean terms

• 11–30 DOM: negotiate thoughtfully—inspection scope, credits, timing

• 30+ DOM: ask “why,” then negotiate harder (pricing, repairs, closing help)

3) Get buyer protections in place early

In a market where strategy matters, having guardrails helps. KS Team’s Buyer Guarantee is designed to reduce stress and give you confidence in your decision-making:
Buyer Guarantee → https://kerishull.com/buyer-guarantee/

And when you’re ready to tour, compare, and track DOM in real time:
Search All Homes → https://kerishull.com/home-search/

What should sellers in Arlington & Alexandria do differently in Q1 2026?

With inventory up and DOM longer than last year, sellers are getting rewarded for precision.

1) Price for the market you’re entering, not the one you remember

When buyers have options, overpriced homes get skipped—then discounted.

2) Win the first weekend

The first 7–10 days is where you’re most likely to get:

• your highest-intent buyers

• the strongest offer terms

• the cleanest negotiation path

3) Think “terms” as much as price

In a more balanced Q1, sellers can stand out by offering:

• flexible closing timing

• targeted repair credits

• lender-friendly terms (when applicable)

If you’re considering selling your Arlington VA home, get a quick baseline before you plan:
Free Home Valuation → https://kerishull.com/home-valuation/

And for added peace of mind:
Seller Guarantee → https://kerishull.com/seller-guarantee/

FAQ: Q1 2026 DMV Market Questions

Is the DMV a buyer’s market in early 2026?

Not broadly. Months of supply in Northern Virginia was 1.04 entering 2026, which is still relatively tight—but notably higher than last year. (NVAR) The practical reality: it’s more negotiable, especially on homes with higher DOM.

Are Arlington home prices dropping in 2026?

Based on the latest completed month entering 2026, Northern Virginia prices were up 2.1% year-over-year (December 2025). (NVAR) The bigger change is speed and leverage—DOM is longer, and buyers are comparing more options.

Why is D.C. taking longer to sell than Arlington or Alexandria?

D.C. reported 49 average DOM entering 2026 versus 35 in Northern Virginia. (new.dcrealtors.org) Property mix (more condos), pricing bands, and neighborhood-level inventory all influence that. Longer DOM often creates better negotiation opportunities for buyers.

What’s the single most important stat to watch right now?

DOM + inventory together. Price tells you what sellers want; DOM tells you what buyers are willing to do.

Ready to make your next move in the DMV?

Q1 2026 is shaping up to reward people who use data and local expertise. Whether you’re buying in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, or D.C., the best outcomes are coming from neighborhood-specific strategy—pricing, DOM awareness, and smart timing.

Ready to take the next step toward your Arlington VA home? Contact KS Team today to schedule a free buyer consultation or get your home’s value instantly with our free home valuation tool:
https://kerishull.com/home-valuation/

Don’t forget — our Buyer Guarantee and Seller Guarantee give you total peace of mind in any market:

Contact us here: https://kerishull.com/contact-us/